Canadian Energy Policy and the Oil Crunch

There is an Energy Crunch coming. Experts predict that world oil production will peak, depending upon who you believe, sometime between 2003 and 2037. Most of the estimates cluster between 2000 and 2010. Note that these numbers are subject to a certain amount of controversy. We could argue about the specific year, but not whether the peak is coming. The point is that once we pass the world oil production peak, we will be in a sellers market. There will still be oil, there just won't be enough and so the price will rise --- supply and demand.

As with many things, the devil is in the timing.

We have seen this year [2000] how skittish the markets have been with the price of oil rising from US$10 to US$37 a barrel. We can expect more of the same and worse, once we pass the peak.

Canada as a northern country has a particular vulnerability to the cost of energy. As the bard so eloquently put it "Mon pays c'est hivier" ("My country is winter"). It therefore behooves us to have a rational and foreward thinking energy policy. Like most plans of action, the required steps are relatively straightforward when viewed from the appropriate point of view.

Notes toward a future energy policy.

• Foster alternative energies research and development
  • We need to foster research into alternate energy sources.
  • We need to foster the engineering and delivery of alternate energy sources. It isn't enough to just understand the principles, we need to make them cheap, reliable and easily available.
  • By alternative energy sources I mean at least - wind turbines, photovoltaics, solar energy, bio-fuels, geo-thermal power and tidal power.
  • We need to consider massive government investment into the manufacturing of photovoltaic materials. This is an industry crying out for the price reductions which follow from economies of scale.
• Reduce reliance on carbon based energy.
  • Stop all current subsidies, tax incentives, etc. for fossil fuels.
  • We need to make more efficient cars.
  • We need to make cars which use alternate energy sources.
  • We need to foster the use of public transport.
  • We need to consider what distribution system will make sense in the face of high nergy costs. Perhaps trains will become popular again.
• Foster the use of alternative energies.
  • We need to provide tax incentives to people who drive alternate energy vehicles.
  • We need to consider a law, like California, mandating that a certain percentage of new vehicles shall be electric hybrids.
  • We need to provide tax incentives to people who incorporate alternate energy materials in their homes.
  • We need to provide building subsidies to people who incorporate alternate energy materials in their homes.
  • We need a federal initiative to coordinate the alternate energy policies of the federal, provincial and municipal levels of government.
  • Every new house should have a photovoltaic roof.
  • We need to take steps to foster the utilization of methane, methanol and other bio-fuel sources.
  • We need to foster the use of alternative energies in public transit. Half the buses in Vancouver are electric; why not everywhere?
  • We need to provide financial incentives to cities which diversify their public transit energy systems - electric/fuel cell buses are available now.
• Foster public transit.
  • One bus uses less fuel than the hundred cars it replaces.

A lot of people are hoping that some new technology will save them. Maybe it will; maybe it won't. It certainly will not if we do not get serious about funding such research now.

A lot of people are hoping the world oil production peak will occur later rather than sooner . Maybe it will; maybe it won't. We can implement a rational energy policy now, or we can wait and hope for a wild card.

I think we must begin to apply a policy such as I have outlined. If we don't, we'll be cold and immobile. And that is not even to consider the climatic changes wrought by the carbon based fuels. Just think - no more smog.

The next time you are talking to politician, ask them when they think world oil production will peak.

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