"The war in Vietnam is but a symptom of a far deeper malady within the American spirit, and if we ignore this sobering reality, we will find ourselves organizing clergy- and laymen-concerned committees for the next generation. They will be concerned about Guatemala and Peru. They will be concerned about Thailand and Cambodia. They will be concerned about Mozambique and South Africa. We will be marching for these and a dozen other names and attending rallies without end, unless there is a significant and profound change in American life and policy." -Martin Luther King, 1967
In the run up to the American election, I was listening to a reporter in Kenya saying that people there believed that if Obama won, their village would get electricity and their streets would be paved, not with gold, but paved. I have heard similarly inflated wish-dreams from Americans caught up in the mania. Hopes and expectations are high all around the world.
As many have said, the election of Obama was historic -- the first black man elected to the White House. He seems to be a decent person with progressive liberal policies, however one must pay attention to what a politician does, not what he says -- no matter the eloquence. Besides restoring some integrity to the American image after the ignominy of the Bush years, what can we expect from American foreign policy under Obama? Let's take a look around the continents.
South America is in growing revolt against American corporate rule. Columbia is their only overt ally, although their president Alvaro Uribe is troubled by indigenous uprisings, the drug trade and paramilitaries. The School of the Americas, rebranded as the School of the Assassins or WHISC according to taste, which trains paramilitaries and death squads has plagued the continent for decades. Will Obama shut down that institution?
While the South and Latin American states slowly evolve toward a form of democratic socialism, the Monroe Doctrine, which since 1823 has declared the region an exclusive protectorate of the USA, is fading away. Russia, China and the EU are all forming trading and business partnerships within the region. How will Obama react to this diminishment of American power? Will he opt for freedom or control?
In Venzuela, the firebrand Hugo Chavez gets under American corporate skins like no other, because he has oil money and he is actually trying to do something for the poor and indigenous people of his nation. The 2002 coup was largely orchestrated by the CIA and has earned Chavez' wrath as a result. With the roller coaster ride of oil prices in the last two years the fortunes of the nation are uncertain. Will Obama call off the attack dogs or will he continue the unspoken push for regime change in Venzuela?
In Bolivia, the indigenous leader Evo Morales has made enemies in the USA by standing up for his people and he is starting to get the 'Chavez treatment' also. Will Obama call off the attack dogs here?
The most flagrant example of misguided US foreign policy in Latin America is Cuba. The UN General Assembly regularly passes a resolution which succeeding Republican and Democratic administrations have ignored, a resolution calling for the 50 year old American blockade of the country to be lifted. Will Obama change that policy?
In Europe, the Bush administration has pushed for what they call a defensive missile shield. Although the US claims that the shield is to guard against Iranian missiles, many observers have seen this as a veiled anti-Russian policy. Many of the old Washington crowd seem to be not able to let go of the Cold War. They need an enemy to keep the MIC [Military Industrial Congressional Prison Infotainment Complex] fed. The irony is that anti-missile systems are largely ineffective and are an example of corporate pork with international implications. Will Obama short circuit this process?
The other aspect of Europe that is relevant is with regards the expansion of NATO, particularly into Georgia and the Ukraine. This originally defensive organization has outlived its original purpose to protect against the Soviet menace and has now mutated into an offensive instrument. The latest manifestation of this process is the engulfment of former Warsaw pact nations in order to surround and neutralize Russia. The use of NATO in Afghanistan is another manifestation. Will Obama change this?
In the Middle East and Central Asia, the USA has been lining up client states and coercing or conquering the uncooperative with an eye towards the geopolitics of petroleum, supporting Israel and as forward bases against the possible threats of Russia, China and India.
Several cases deserve separate mention. It is arguable that Obama's Senate objection to invading Iraq in 2003 was what allowed him to defeat Hillary Clinton in the primaries. Since then, during his battle with McCain, his position on Iraq has become much more nuanced. And there have been developments in the field. The SOFA [Status of Forces Agreement] signed with the al Maliki government requires the removal of US forces by 2011. And the suicide bombing is not stopping. What will be the policy reaction of Obama to these developments? The other question lurking in the background is the status of the permanent bases the Americans have established in the country. Will they be handed over to Iraqis or will the Americans hold them? And what would be Obama's reaction to a Kurd versus Arab civil war as sometimes seems imminent?
The struggle of the Palestinian people to protect their homes and land from Zionist usurpation has been a festering sore in the Middle East since the 1930s. Obama has made some fairly strong pro-Israel statements. Due to the influence of the American-Jewish lobby, this seems to be required by any aspiring American politician nowadays, but will he follow through? Or will Obama move to resolve the Palestinian conflict? The holy lands have been the graveyard of many a good intention.
Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt all have their place in US policy, but it is Iran that looms over all. Not because they are scary -- the Persians haven't attacked another country for over 200 years -- but because the Israelis are afraid of them and the Americans have been threatening them ever since the Islamic revolution. Attacking Iraq was relatively simple because the country was divided and the population less than 30 million. Attacking a united Iran of 70 million people, would be a different story, potentially much more dangerous to the attacker, whether Israel or the USA. Will Obama talk to Iran as he said on the campaign trail? Can the issue of Iranian uranium refining be resolved amicably?
Assuming Bush-Cheney-Israel do not attack Iran in the final days of the Bush junta, what will be the Obama policy with regard Afghanistan and Pakistan? During the campaign he talked tough about sending more troops into Afghanistan and pursuing the Taliban into Pakistan. Will he do this?
With the assassination of Bhutto and the overthrow of Mussaref, Pakistan has been becoming more unstable, a process that has not been helped by the Mumbai bombings. The Americans have been flying UAVs [Unmanned Aerial Vehicles] over tribal areas killing suspected terrorists. Will Obama allow this policy to continue?
Behind the Taliban, somewhere in the mountains is al Qaeda. Obama has sworn to track down Osama. Will he follow through with this promise? More American troops in Moslem countries is exactly what Osama wants to see, so that al Qaeda can pass itself off as the protector of the faith. How will Obama deal with this contradiction?
In South Asia, India has been a prime focus of American policy to neutralize BRIC [Brazil, Russia, India and China] cooperation. The US-Indian nuclear treaty short circuiting the [NPT] Non-Proliferation Treaty was a major advance towards this goal. Will Obama abrogate that treaty? The Bush administration has been leaning on India to isolate Iran by killing the IPI [Iran-Pakistan-India] pipeline. Will Obama allow the pipeline to go through?
Elsewhere in Asia, I suspect the main emphasis of American policy will be economic, primarily in China and Japan. The insurgency in the Philippines is primarily local, as is the conflict in southern Thailand. Obama lived in Indonesia. How will he treat the generals there? Will the military embargo be restored?
In Africa, there are several hotspots -- Darfur, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zimbabwe. Will Obama seek to have influence in these countries?
The American view of Africa is largely driven by fear of Islamists and desire for natural resources. A significant and increasing share of US oil imports comes from Nigeria. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is a primary source of coltan for US industry. Recently the Pentagon has sprouted a new branch called AFRICOM to deal with African affairs, although no African nation will allow them to be based in their country. Will Obama seek to change this?
One wide ranging aspect of American foreign policy which has greatly affected Africa is with regards AIDS prevention and control. For religious and ideological reasons, the Bush administration has been opposed to the promotion of condoms for disease prevention and birth control. Will Obama continue this ineffective, wrong-headed and malignant policy?
As for North America, in Canada, the question on most people's minds is whether Obama will demand the renegotiation of NAFTA. And in Mexico, the question is American immigration policy, as well as the continuation of the drug war which is wrecking havoc in border cities. Will Obama finish the wall? How will he treat these issues?
In the final days of the Bush administration, a Presidential Directive regarding American policy in the Arctic was released. This directive will have broad reaching implications for Canadian sovereignty, specifically over boundaries and the North West Passage. With the disappearance of the northern ice pack, countries all around the Arctic circle are staking claims. How will Obama react to these claims?
Some domestic American issues project into the realm of foreign relations. One of these is whether or not Obama will continue to allow mercenaries to supplement the US military. Euphemistically called 'corporate security', these forces are not subject to military justice and frequently their crimes go unreported and unpunished. Will this change under Obama?
Behind this is the question of his general attitude toward corporations. Will Washington's motto still be the best politicians money can buy?
One fundamental question is whether Obama will be able to change American agricultural policy, specifically the destructive system of subsidies and tax breaks that support an anti-ecological approach to agriculture. The commoditization of corn and support for CAFO [Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation] will not last past peak oil and sensible alternatives need to be created. Is he clued in to this? The implications for international trade negotiations would be huge. The Doha round of WTO talks broke down over this and similar European issues. Will he seek to create a viable agricultural future for the country?
Another fundamental question is whether Obama will be able to implement a real change in energy policy. If he is able to do this, American dependence on foreign oil will be diminished with a subsequent change in priorities. It would also have implications in climate change negotiations.
Another generic question is whether Obama will seek to continue the imperial presidency implemented by Bush and Cheney. What will be the importance of the US Constitution and the rule of law in the Obama administration? These questions have international implications. Will Obama shut down Guantanamo? What about the 'black sites' in other nations, as well as expedited rendition? Will he stand by the Geneva Conventions and stop all torture?
More generally, will Obama support international law and move to ratify the International Criminal Court? There are a raft of other international treaties which the USA has blithely ignored over the last three decades, including the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW), the Law of the Sea, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the Treaty Banning Antipersonnel Mines, the Antiballistic Missile Treaty and the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Will Obama support these? The USA has a long way to go to lose its rogue status.
And how will Obama deal with other international duties --- on the climate and ecological fronts? The IPCC is in the process of negotiating a successor to Kyoto. The upcoming Copenhagen 2009 meeting will be a basic test of American patience and ingenuity. Remember that Clinton and Gore signed the Kyoto Treaty in 1997, but they were not able to get it through the Senate. How will Obama fare in facing down the carbon lobby? The United Nations Millenium Development Goals have been falling by the wayside. Will Obama take them up?
The USA has been a living contradiction since the end of the Cold War. The American War Machine has a budget greater than the military budgets of the rest of the world combined. The physical manifestation of this empire is the 800 to 1000 military bases sprinkled around the world. They are hugely expensive. As the global recession kicks in, will Obama be forced to shut down these bases? The odd thing is that, with their dependence on oil, America has been running up a huge foreign exhange deficit. Effectively the world is paying for Pax Americana. How long can that go on? How will Obama react to the diminishment of American power?
Calamitous events often act as triggers to release hidden forces or to enable previously laid plans. The election of Obama in the context of a major global recession may function in this manner. He himself has said he is not anti-war; he is anti-stupid-war. Will Obama turn out to be a liberal hawk pushing global capitalism and the American Empire? Or will things really change?
I have noticed some online folks prejudging these questions from the people chosen by Obama for his transition team, the history of those in his cabinet and so on. I am willing to give him rope to see what he will do with it. He may hang himself and he may build a rope ladder. We will see.
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